DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/28 11:34
Traders Show Livestock Complex Little Interest After Thanksgiving Holiday
The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Monday afternoon as both
the cattle and hog markets long for support at the week's start.
DTN Livestock Analyst
The livestock complex is off to a meek start as the market tiptoes into
Monday's noon hour. With the big advances in last week's cash cattle market,
one would have thought cattle contracts would be trading higher Monday.
Meanwhile the lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trend as the market
longs for demand but is skeptical if it will come or not. December corn is
steady and January soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is
down 330.73 points.
As the market heads into the noon hour, the live cattle market isn't seeing
the support it saw earlier in the day. With last week's $3.00 to $4.50
advancement in the cash sector, one would suspect the futures market would
follow its lead and trade higher into the new week. But given that the market
is coming back from a long holiday weekend, traders could show the market more
support after they have time to reappraise the entire marketplace. December
live cattle are down $0.47 at $152.60, February live cattle are down $0.67 at
$154.45 and April live cattle are down $0.75 at $158.22.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place mostly Wednesday.
Southern cattle traded for $152 to $155.50, but mostly at $154 to $155, which
is $3.50 to $4.50 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern
dressed cattle sold for $243 to $247.50, which was $3.00 higher than the week
before. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade sold 94,864 head. Of that 85%
(80,957 head) were committed to nearby delivery, while the remaining 15%
(13,907 head) were committed for deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $3.00 ($254.83) and select down $1.35
($233.02) with a movement of 25 loads (18.81 loads of choice, 4.90 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 1.38 loads of ground beef).
The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market longs for support
but has come up short thus far Monday. Currently the corn complex is trading
lower, which thankfully bodes well for the market and its aspiration to trade
higher. But without support from the live cattle complex, the market is
struggling to muster up enough technical and fundamental backing to justify
trading higher. The market will see more feeder cattle sales this week as sale
barns will likely have an influx as last week most sale barns took the week off
for the holiday. January feeders are down $0.80 at $177.50, March feeders are
down $0.42 at $181.12 and April feeders are down $0.22 at $184.90.
The lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trading trend as the
market longs for demand but has unfortunately come up short in recent weeks. As
the bird flu continues to spread throughout the country and affect poultry
barns, chicken prices will likely continue to rise, which could turn some
consumers onto pork cuts. Not to mention retailers will be restocking after the
Thanksgiving buying rush to prepare for Christmas, which could lend the hog
market the support it's hoping for. It's interesting to see pork cutout values
up over $9.00 Monday morning, the biggest being the $36.90 jump in the bellies.
But with cold storage supplies extremely full of bellies, I don't believe we'll
see the day's closing pork cutout value as drastically high. December lean hogs
are down $1.35 at $82.45, February lean hogs are down $2.75 at $85.70 and April
lean hogs are down $2.57 at $91.45.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $81.73, ranging from $80.00 to
$87.50 on 4,017 head and a five-day rolling average of $81.99. Pork cutouts
total 146.60 loads with 125.40 loads of pork cuts and 21.20 loads of trim. Pork
cutout values: up $9.80, $97.43.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but
the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S.
and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts
on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full
details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit
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