This article was originally posted at 2:15 p.m. CDT on Thursday, July 25. It was updated with additional information at 5:09 p.m. CDT on Thursday, July 25.

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MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Day 3 of the Wheat Quality Council's Spring Wheat and Durum Tour concluded Thursday with the final three-day total weighted average all-wheat yield estimate of 53.8 bushels per acre (bpa) of 257 fields total for the three days. The average spring wheat yield of 237 fields was estimated at 54.5 bpa, and the average durum yield of 18 fields was estimated at 45.3 bpa.

In the 2023 tour, the final total weighted average all-wheat yield estimate of 343 fields was 47.1 bpa, with an average spring wheat yield of 318 fields at 47.4 bpa and an average durum yield of 21 fields at 43.9 bpa.

Going back as far as 1994, the top overall tour yield for HRS wheat was 49.9 bpa in 2015, and the top for durum was 45.4 bpa in 2016.

"Minneapolis wheat has reacted in a bearish manner following two days of the Wheat Quality Council's Spring Wheat and Durum Tour," said DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Day 1 findings had the hard red spring wheat yield at 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 48.1 bpa one year ago. The results from Day 2 covering northwest and north-central North Dakota were even more impressive with the Day 2 HRS wheat yield pegged at 53.7 bpa compared to just 45.7 bpa one year ago. Minneapolis September wheat, which had rallied four straight days in response to the hot and dry forecast for Canada and the Northern Plains, plunged as much as 26 cents just since the tour began on Tuesday."

In its July 12 report, USDA said that based on July 1 conditions, North Dakota's 2024 other spring wheat crop is forecast at 306 million bushels, up 14% from last year. Average yield is forecast at 56 bushels per acre, up 7.5 bushels from 2023 and a record high if realized. Durum wheat production is forecast at 53.4 million bushels, up 67% from last year. USDA forecast the average yield at 46 bushels per acre, up 9 bushels from 2023 and a record high if realized.

The consensus among participants in this year's tour was also that North Dakota is poised to produce a bumper wheat crop this year, according to U.S. Wheat Associates.

"After three days of analyzing, counting and calculating, participants came to a common conclusion: North Dakota wheat farmers may have produced their best crop in decades," the U.S. Wheat Associates stated in a July 25 Wheat Letter Blog posted on the group's website, https://www.uswheat.org/….

Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, was quoted in the blog as saying weather conditions in the weeks leading up to harvest will determine whether the 2024 North Dakota wheat crop reaches its record-breaking potential.

"I don't ever remember the crops being this uniformly good all over the state," Green said, according to the blog. "We can't get ahead of ourselves until harvest begins and farmers begin taking wheat out of the fields. At this point, things look really good for some of the best yields we have seen in a number of years."

For DTN's report on Day 2 results of the tour, see https://www.dtnpf.com/….

For more on Day 1 of the tour, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins contributed to this article.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn

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